viernes, 26 de noviembre de 2010

Salir del euro

Muy interesante este artículo de Douglas Carswell, un diputado conservador británico, sobre el caso irlandés. La tesis es que en lugar de rescatar a Irlanda de su crisis de deuda, deberíamos ayudarla a salir del euro y a apoyar que deje de pagar sus deudas.

A prosperous Ireland is in Britain’s interest, as the chancellor, George Osborne, was quick to tell the House of Commons. It is not simply a case of economics. There is scarcely a street in Britain in which family ties do not bind the fate of our two islands. It is precisely because we want to see Ireland prosper that we should help it escape from the euro. It was euro membership, with ruinously low interest rates for more than a decade, that plunged Ireland into the economic abyss. Diehard euro advocates might ignore reality, but if Ireland had had interest rates set according to the needs of the Irish economy rather than a wider eurozone, it would not be in this credit-fuelled mess today.

For all the fanfare, the bailout has not reduced the amount Ireland owes by a single euro. Rather, it has seen Ireland accept more debt. Ireland has now gone beyond the point at which it can pay back what it owes. The country can either spend miserable years trapped in debt, with high taxes and higher emigration, or it can decouple from the euro – and default.

Decouple and default works. Remember how the political elite in Argentina, as in Ireland, pegged their own currency to another? Yet when the peso was decoupled from the dollar and Argentina defaulted in 2002, it was free to grow again. Argentina has been chugging along at an enviable 7% to 8% annual growth each year since.

Defaulting on its debts – impossible while Ireland remains in the euro – could follow if it were to decouple. While no one would ever then want to lend Ireland such mountains of money again, would that be such a bad thing?

Probablemente, cuando le llegue el turno a España y a este paso va a ser en semanas, la única salida será la salida del euro y el "default". Todos más pobres, en definitiva. Como Argentina. Lo siguiente será Alfredo Rubalcaba de Kirchner, apoyado en los piqueteros de UGT.

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